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Posts Tagged ‘finance’

Moderate Republicans (How did we end up in this vale of tears?)

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

It’s been a bleak election season for moderate Republicans — I know because I’m one of them, and I’ve been commiserating for months with like-minded centrists.

I used to think that we (moderate Republicans) comprised the base of our party. All the wackiness of the presidential primaries and caucuses was mere grandstanding, designed to placate the small Evangelical and Tea Party factions of the party’s base in early primary states such as Iowa and South Carolina. But once the silly season was over, I felt we could count on nominating a solid citizen as our candidate for President. This confidence was not based on naiveté but on a stellar record; we did it in 1979 with Ronald Reagan, a brilliant visionary and an adept pragmatist who knew how to work both sides of the aisle, and most recently, with Mitt Romney, a less-than-natural campaigner but an honorable man with vast talent who had been a successful governor of the most Democratic state in the Union.

But this year has turned out to be downright depressing, as we witness a modern day “Luddite” spout vitriol and diatribes against anyone who doesn’t pay him the respect he craves but can’t earn.

Moderate Republicans are so mainstream that some people mistake us for moderate Democrats. I like that because what we have in common is our moderation. We are more alike than either of us is relative to the far reaches of our respective parties. I tend to think that together we represent a significant majority of voters in the American electorate —in effect, the vast silent majority.

Moderate Republicans believe that government is necessary but should not be overwhelming — and never intrusive. We believe the government needs to stay out of the bedroom and out of the doctor’s office.

Moderate Republicans realize that government is not the solution to all problems; we know that it’s the private sector that generates profits, and profits are what’s needed for both economic growth and individual wealth creation. So, limited government is essential, and regulation should aim to support, not stymie, free-market behavior.

Moderate Republicans respect science and are committed to the responsible stewardship of our planet. Our leaders were the instigators of public discourse about air and water quality, which was the genesis of the Environmental Protection Agency, and they played a key role in the mitigation of acid rain from the Midwest to the Northeast. But they also acknowledge that onerous and excessive regulation that does not take into account legitimate cost benefit analysis is deleterious for the well-being of the country.

Moderate Republicans believe that a minimum wage that keeps a head of household below the poverty level is a hindrance to economic growth, and that it’s also morally deficient.

Moderate Republicans support immigration reform, abhorring the notion of deporting millions of workers, the vast majority of whom pay income and Social Security taxes, contribute to our economic growth and, in many cases, bear the pain of separation from their loved ones thousands of miles away in order to support them. They also believe that our borders need to be more open to the many around the world who want to benefit from the opportunities this country offers to those who are willing to work hard to improve their chance of a better life.

Moderate Republicans make an effort to educate themselves on social issues that have a bearing on the lives of those who might be victims of discrimination, prejudice and retaliation. They respect diversity and support a social order that allows human beings to lead their lives without fear. (And, yes, moderate Republicans believe that gender police should stay out of the bathroom!)

Moderate Republicans find abhorrent the notion of our nation defaulting on its debt  because a government that would not honor its financial obligations is the moral equivalent of a government run amok. That’s what happens in failing states in the third world, not in the most powerful nation on the planet.

Moderate Republicans believe that the Second Amendment was written during a time when our newly formed country had to be defended by a ready citizen militia, and that the right to bear arms should not stand in the way of government regulation to ensure the safety of the population at large.

Moderate Republicans believe that their president should show leadership by actively embracing members of the opposite party, building respect and having the courage and integrity to compromise when it’s in the best interest of the country.

These are but a few of the many ways moderate Republicans think about the issues facing our country today. Sadly, we have no candidate who represents our values. We are left holding our noses (as an Italian friend of mine said she would do when voting for Berlusconi) on election day and voting for whomever we think is the lesser of two bad choices.

And, dear Democratic friends, I’m already anticipating your invitations to join your party. But I can’t — I am a true and tried moderate Republican and proud of it.

© Copyright 2016 Patricia W. Chadwick

Tipping (One Way to Share the Wealth)

Monday, March 21st, 2016

March 21, 2016
Patricia Chadwick, pchadwick@ravengate.com
 
At two separate recent hotel stays, one in Washington, DC, the other in Atlanta, I noticed a small envelope in my room on which was a printed suggestion that the hotel guest leave a gratuity for the housekeeper.

“Tipping the maid,” as I remember the custom from the 1970s, seemed to die out more than a generation ago, and I was struck by the return of that custom. I readily complied and look for more such envelopes at future hotel stays.

Which gets to the point of this blog. The practice of tipping often seems to be treated as an annoying obligation, instead of an opportunity to say a gracious “Thank you.”

That attitude allows people to tip meagerly if they were not fully satisfied with the service —for example, if the traffic was snarled, and the taxi ride took ten minutes longer than hoped, or if the hamburger at the packed airport restaurant was medium, instead of medium rare. But in neither case was the recipient of the tip (or lack thereof) responsible for the disappointing service.

I like to think of gratuities as a means of augmenting the income of some of the lowest hourly wage earners in our economy — waiters and cab drivers, bellhops and redcaps, manicurists and hotel housekeepers, garage attendants and delivery people — from pizza to furniture.

And let’s not kid ourselves — we all deem the services provided by these professionals to be of critical value in our lives. Imagine coming back to your hotel room, exhausted at the end of a day jammed with meetings, to find damp towels still on the bathroom floor. Think of your frustration at getting to the airport towing luggage and toddlers and not being able to do curbside check in. Try to fathom the horror of having to do your own manicure before an important client meeting or job interview or even a date.

It’s easy to argue that if everyone were paid a decent minimum wage, there wouldn’t be the need to tip. That’s the way it seems to work in other modern societies, you may say. But that argument won’t solve the problem that exists in our economy today.

Fortunately, in many cases, technology makes the art of tipping a breeze. Credit card use in nearly all taxicabs allows one, with the touch of a finger, to add a 30% tip to the fare. If the cost of the ride is $12.50 (for example), a 30% gratuity is just $3.75. The difference between that and the meager $1.25 of a 10% tip is real cash of $2.50 in the pocket of the driver, a nice increment to his or her hourly wage and hardly a burden to the rider. And the appreciative “Thank you” from the driver as you exit the cab will put a smile on your face.

Once upon a time, it sufficed to keep lots of one-dollar bills in your wallet for the ability to tip on the spur of the moment. But today, I like to think that “FIVE is the new ONE.” A dollar tip says to the service provider, “I have to do this even though I don’t want to,” while a five-dollar bill says, “Thank you so much; I appreciate your service.”

A one-dollar tip keeps the service provider at the poverty level, while if we all make the effort to be generous with our gratuities, we can be part of having a real and beneficial impact on a large segment of the hardworking people in this country.

Trickle-down economics may be scoffed at by many, but there is no better case of true trickle-down benefits than by generously saying “Thank you” with a gratuity that matters.

By the way, the word gratuity derives from the Latin word “gratias,” which means simply “Thanks.”

Let there be thanks that someone is doing a job I don’t want to do; let there be thanks that I can share my blessing of well-being with someone who can benefit from it; let there be thanks that I can help to improve the quality of life of someone I don’t know but do appreciate.

 

© Copyright 2015 Patricia W. Chadwick

Caveat Emptor! (If You Buy an Airline Ticket and the Flight is Cancelled)

Monday, October 12th, 2015

There’s a moral to this story, so read to the end. It’s short and sweet.It was raining in New York. That meant that LaGuardia Airport was in jeopardy of cancelling innumerable flights. I hoped mine wouldn’t be one of them.

After sitting on the tarmac for three hours in sunny Greensboro, North Carolina, and receiving encouraging words over the intercom regarding the state of our flight, we finally started taxiing down the runway. The stars were aligned; the flight would take off.

And then as the plane was slowly making its way to the front of the line, the speaker phone went into action, and we heard the dreaded announcement. The flight was cancelled because we’d need more fuel if we were to face the long in-air delay on account of flight traffic.

There were no options for getting to New York in time for my event, so I cancelled my plans. Disappointing, annoying, yes exasperating, but not that much out of the ordinary when trying to get to LaGuardia.

But it’s because of what happened afterward that I’m sending this missive.

A few days passed, and I looked online at my credit card statement, anticipating a full refund. None was there. I dreaded calling the Delta customer service number and speaking to a computerized voice, but what choice did I have?

After pressing an endless series of response buttons, a real (and very friendly) human being did come on the line. Getting the refund was complicated by the fact that I had bought a $25 upgrade to a “comfort” seat, with a bit of extra leg room. However, after about ten minutes, I had my credit.

Then I asked the question that was burning inside me.

“Why wasn’t the airfare automatically credited to my account?” I asked.

The verbatim answer was, “They (i.e. Delta) just don’t automatically refund.”

I was floored and, upon further questioning, was told it was because the customer might prefer to get a credit or an exchange. There is some logic to that line of thinking, but it doesn’t absolve the company for putting the onus on its customers to get a refund.

I have no idea whether this is a Delta-only policy or a universal airline policy.

What I find appalling is how any airline, whose only product is one very specified service, namely getting you safely from point A to point B, doesn’t feel an obligation to reach out to its customers when that service is lacking, even if it is not their own fault.

In this era of instant everything, why couldn’t an airline (Delta in this case) have sent an automatic instant message to each and every customer whose flight was cancelled, advising them of the ways in which they might convert their cancelled flight to their advantage.

A simple apology followed by a question: “Would you like to have the entire airfare credited to your charge card?”

With an option for the answer: “Yes,” which would do the trick perfectly.

It would also signal that the company cared about its customers. I’m sure that level of service would build some customer loyalty, as well.

A sinister suggestion as to why such a system doesn’t currently exist might be that the airline is hoping some customers will simply overlook what they assumed would be an automatic refund. It’s no wonder so many of the flying public hate the airlines.

So the moral of this tale is: Don’t count on getting an automatic airfare refund if your flight is cancelled.

Let’s hope that an enlightened public relations department of an enlightened airline with an enlightened CEO will take the lead in getting into the twenty-first century technologically when it comes to communications and customer service.

 

 

 

 

 

© Copyright 2015 Patricia W. Chadwick

 

Confiscatory Student Loans Are a Huge Drag on Our Economy

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

The housing market, while still under water and providing little contribution to economic growth, is at least seeing light at the end of the tunnel. That is because mortgage rates are now at a fifty year low, providing significant economic incentive for buyers to enter the marketplace. The excess supply of homes is slowly dwindling.

However, just as the housing market appears to be coming out of its depression, the country faces another threat. It is an insidious economic cancer that threatens to sap potential growth for decades to come. This cancer is none other than STUDENT LOANS!

An entire generation of twenty somethings who were not privileged enough to be provided higher education by their parents is entering the work force with a giant noose around its collective neck. And that noose is in the form of huge student loans they were required to take out in order to get an education that would give them a competitive entrée in the work place. It is the magnitude of the debt that is frightening. In many cases, their middle class parents are broke and now they are starting their careers broke as well. By some measures, the total student debt outstanding is over $1 trillion, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal on March 23, 2012.

The economic impact of this scenario is scary. Today’s young college graduates should be the trailblazers for the continuation of the American dream. Their energy, stamina, creativity and appetite for risk are the ingredients for entrepreneurship. It has been that way in this country for decades and even centuries. But now suddenly that ability to dream big and take risk is being choked off by the crushingly high level of debt they must repay. They cannot afford to take risk or to invest. They can barely afford to spend on discretionary items because they have so little money left each month after paying their student loans.

Student loans have long been a part of the American way of life. I had such a loan myself for seven or eight years. But there is a huge difference today. When I paid my student loan, it was in the late 1970s, a period of extraordinarily high inflation and consequently high interest rates. However, the interest on my student loan was a manageable 5.5% and the loan carried simple interest.

Today, with interest rates under 2% on the 10 year Government note, student loans carry rates of 6% at a minimum and as high as 11%, most of them under a Federal Government program. And to add insult to injury, the interest on many of these loans is amortized. The newly minted graduate, assuming he/she gets that far, is racing just to service the debt without paying down the principal.

I recently spoke to a young woman who put herself through college and graduate school with no financial support from her family. Upon graduation, her eleven separate Federal loans totaled $135,000. She currently earns nearly $65,000 annually by working a full week and one day on the weekend. Since she started working, she has paid more than the monthly minimum required on her loans and after nearly two years of payments that have totaled $26,000 her balance today has grown to $141,560! She is deeper in debt than at graduation because some of the loans are paying down no principal at all. She is caught in a vise that will make home ownership an impossible dream for decades. She called Sallie Mae, the company that services the vast majority of Federal student loans, to inquire about consolidating her many loans the possibility of getting a lower rate. The Sallie Mae employee said that the company was willing to consolidate but would give her no break on the interest rate. And when she inquired as to why no one at Sallie Mae reached out to her, she was told that policy prohibits such action. If that is true, that policy is criminally negligent.

Another young woman, the daughter of a friend of mine, has a $42,000 private student loan with Discover carrying an 11% interest rate. When her father contacted Discover in an attempt to negotiate a lower interest rate, the (evidently naïve) employee said there was nothing that could be done. In further conversation, she admitted that the student loan business was Discover’s most profitable and that employees were provided incentive compensation based on how successful they were in ‘selling’ loans to students. Again, if true, such a corporate ethic is moral turpitude. And Discover’s website advertises student loans for “as low as 6.79% APR”.

These stories are far from unique. They are repeated hundreds of thousands of times in this country. The lenders decry the fact that student default rates are high. Well of course they are high when the interest rates are so onerous. The system is downright Dickensian.

The recently passed bill signed by President Obama unfortunately will not relieve the interest rate burden on the generation of young graduates who are drowning in debt, although it does alleviate conditions from getting even worse for some students. In response to the new law, Sallie Mae and other student debt servicing companies have bemoaned the fact that they will be forced to lay off employees. But I argue that those layoffs are nothing compared to the negative impact on the economy from a generation of workers who have diminished resources to buy basic goods and services, much less to take on economic risk.
So what is to be done? How can this cancer be cured?

A complete overhaul of the student loan industry is essential. For one, the business should be tightly regulated, in much the same way that utilities are. I am sure this concept is anathema to many, and I myself abhor overregulation, but the abuse that is being heaped on the vulnerable (i.e. young, desperate students) warrants such a response.

And something must be done about the cost of higher education, which has spiraled out of control. There are many studies that show that the cost of college tuition has increased at multiples of the rate of inflation. When an asset (college education) is priced to become a liability (it bankrupts the buyer) the price must fall. That is simply an economic fact of life.

Ruminate on these statistics for a moment or two.
CONFISCATORY STUDENT LOANS
Tuition Per Annum 1960 1960 (in 2008 $) 2008 Actual
Harvard $1,520 $10,147 $33,709
University of Texas $100 $695 $7,530
Michigan State $279 $1,939 $8,843
Source: ClearPictureOnline.com

Is it no wonder that parents can no longer afford to provide a college education for their children? But without such higher education, the outlook for gainful and fulfilling employment is miserable.

The debt being incurred by the young in this country has reached the level of a national crisis. We had better address it now before this it takes on the proportion of our Federal Government’s debt.

Patricia W Chadwick
President
Ravengate Partners LLC

The Gift from the Federal Reserve – A Once in a Lifetime Opportunity to Buy a House

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

It is not often that low mortgage rates coincide with low house prices – the condition that exists today in this country. When mortgage rates are high, they tend to keep house prices from rising because it becomes too financially onerous to finance the house. When interest rates are low, it tends to stimulate demand for houses, pushing up the prices.

But we are in an unusual situation today. The housing bubble which burst in 2008 caused not only a massive oversupply of homes across nearly the entire country, but it also precipitated the worst recession in over fifty years. The Federal Reserve, in response, cut interest rates sharply and despite the fact that the recession has officially been over for two years, it continues to keep rates low. It is trying to allow homeowners to refinance their mortgages at more favorable rates. However, the issue is complicated by the fact that many homeowners now have mortgages that exceed the value of their homes.

The Fed has stated that it will keep rates low for at least another 18 – 24 months, hoping that time as well as a resolution to thorny banking regulation issues will result in existing mortgage owners lowering the carrying costs of their debt.

Regarding the prices for homes, you can see from the chart below (courtesy of JP’s Real Estate Charts) that the price bubble in housing has truly been burst. Both the nominal and the inflation-adjusted house price in the United States has returned to its long term trend line. That is good news over all, but I hasten to point out that the data show an average for the country as whole. There are still significant pockets of oversupply and prices in those areas are likely to remain under pressure for some time. But the shape of the graph is very good news.

All of which gets me to the point of my title. If you are in the market to buy a house, this is as good a time as you may find in the next twenty years to do so. Mortgage rates are lower than they have been in well over fifty years. House prices appear to have ceased falling (for the most part) but have not yet started to regain any significant momentum.

This window of opportunity will not likely be around for more than a year or two. That may seem a long time, but once rates start to creep up again, this golden moment will be gone for years, maybe even decades. And while it may seem counterintuitive, when rates start to rise again in the next two years, so will house prices. The bursting of the housing inflation bubble resulted in damaging deflation, but as the economy rights itself, and employment improves, so too will house prices.

On a thirty year mortgage of $200,000, the difference between an interest rate of 3.5% (what one can get today) and 6.0% (the rate that is more like what it would be without the Fed’s intervention) is a total of $108,364!!! That is more than 50% of the value of the house.

The saying goes, “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth”. But in this case, I would not only look this gift horse in the eye, I would saddle it up and gallop into the future with the gift of a lifetime. I am particularly thinking of you twenty somethings and thirty somethings who may be thinking that real estate prices still have a long way to fall or that the current mortgage rates might be the new norm. Neither is the case.

Happy Shopping.

January 22, 2012

The Moral of the Tale of Solyndra

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Leaving aside the issue of influence via political contributions and lobbyists (as they are as yet unproven) the moral of the Solyndra debacle seems simple to me. The Federal Government should stay out of the investment business.

Solyndra was an accident waiting to happen. The company couldn’t get funding from the private sector. A hoped for public offering had been cancelled. It was apparently obvious to analysts and lenders that the company was, at a minimum, not an attractive investment and possibly not even viable. They chose to avoid providing either equity or debt capital to the company. The macro factors were compelling – in an industry where the competitors’ raw material costs were falling, Solyndra was a classic case of a company with variable costs that were simply too high.

One has to assume that the Federal Government employees responsible for doing the research on Solyndra simply lacked the technical skills to do a thorough analysis of the company’s long term (or even short term as it turns out) viability. That is the most charitable thing that can be said.

It is hard to imagine that they were so dimwitted that they were willing to risk the embarrassment of a default on a loan of over $500 million. So it is fair to say that they didn’t really believe the company would go into bankruptcy. Common sense tells me that the powers that be who were making the final decision about which ‘green’ company would receive Federal Government backing most assuredly wanted it to be a success story.

Of course, it is possible that Solyndra’s management lied to the Government. That is not uncommon in the investment world, and that is what tried and true analysts are paid to figure out. The Government was in over its head. If an analyst in the private sector had recommended a loan or an investment in Solyndra and within two years the company had gone kaput, you can be assured that the yearend bonus for that analyst would also have gone kaput. In the investment world, there is a real incentive to be hardnosed, to get the facts right and to make a decision that creates a positive return. There is no such incentive system in the Federal Government. I doubt that anyone will lose his/her job over the annihilation of $535 million of taxpayers’ hard earned money being lent to Solyndra.

So assuming that there was no sinister under-story here, the problem must lie in the fact that the Federal Government employees charged with researching the case were simply not up to the task.

And therein lies the true moral of the story. Let the Federal Government stick to its appointed knitting, and for the benefit of all the people it serves, let it stay out of the sophisticated and specialized business of investing in and lending to corporations in the private sector.

JOBS, JOBS – What Will It Take to Bring Them Back?

Friday, September 16th, 2011

Why is there no job growth in the U.S. Economy?

Depending upon whom you ask, you can get any number of different answers. Political demagoguery is the easy response, particularly when we are less than fourteen months away from the presidential election.

But I am confident that had John McCain won the election in 2008, the unemployment rate today would not be much lower than it currently is.

Contrary to what many Republicans say, the stimulus plan did indeed help the economy and certainly provided for jobs. And for the most part the money that was spent was used for long overdue infrastructure spending that the Government should have been doing all along. But there is no way the stimulus plan could be a long term solution for economic growth. That is the responsibility of the private sector.

The real problem underlying the dearth of new jobs today is twofold.

On the one hand, it reflects the fact that the consumer is paying for the sins of the past. For two decades, consumers in this country went on a spending spree. With the aid of banks and other lending institutions, they used the equity in their homes to borrow money, over and above what they were earning, and then they spent that money. Such behavior acted as a stimulus to the economy, that is, until the music stopped.

The recession that started in 2007 brought an end to the profligate borrowing, as the decline in home values eviscerated many homeowners’ equity. Banks turned off the lending spigot and consumers were forced to alter their lifestyles. Instead of turning to a new line of credit in order to pay off the old one, they found themselves forced to repay their loans, often as their own income was diminished. Their response was quick and logical. They cut back on spending and started to save, and savings rates, which had plummeted over the past twenty years of excessive spending, began a sharp reversal, rising dramatically over the last four years. All of that sounds like good news, and in one way it is because it means that the consumer’s balance sheet is improving.

However, savings increases are coming at the expense of spending and therein lies one of the big problems for job growth and the economy in the short run. Savings by definition is money NOT spent. Savings in the long run will be very beneficial and will allow consumers to replenish their balance sheets but the process is painful. And because the consumer had so much debt at the time of the recession, it is likely that it will take a number of years still before consumer spending becomes robust again. And without robust demand, it is difficult to create new jobs.
On that score, it is not fair to blame the current administration for the lack of jobs. Consumers brought this state of affairs on themselves, and they are slowly rectifying it.

On the business side of the economic equation, which is the investment part of the economy, the issue of job creation is also a problem. In part, it is the result of slow final demand by consumers who are unable to spend as freely as they could when borrowing was at their beck and call. However, the problem is bigger and more dire than that.
Businesses spend their capital and/or expand their labor force based on the profits they expect to generate from those investments. Entrepreneurs make decisions about starting new businesses (and more than half of the job creation in this country comes from new and small companies) on the basis of the long term outlook for growth and profitability.

What has emerged over the last several years is an environment of Government regulation that is truly crushing the entrepreneurial spirit in this country. Companies large and small are facing an array of rules, restrictions, and profit-destroying constraints that have immobilized capital. The threat of higher taxes for corporations and small owner-operated business is a powerful deterrent to capital formation.

Until and unless there is a major reprieve from such stultifying over-regulation, our economy will not make forward progress and unemployment will remain unnecessarily high. The blame for this state of affairs can indeed be laid at the feet of the current administration. President Obama is either getting bad advice from his inner circle of advisors or not heeding them, but he ignores the problems facing business and employment at his own peril.
There is not much time between now and Election Day in 2012 to remedy the unemployment rate. However, massive elimination of regulation and an equalization of corporate tax rates that allows the U.S. to be competitive with other countries would be a major start. A bold move such as that would send the message that the President understands how the economy works and what it needs to get it turned around. But as of now, people don’t think he gets it and they will be looking for someone for President who does.

Take Heart – This is NOT 2008!!

Monday, August 15th, 2011

The volatility in the markets this past week may be reminiscent of what took place in August and September of 2008, but this summer of our discontent is a far cry from what the world faced three years ago. Thank goodness!

That is not to say that the issues roiling the markets today are insignificant or of little consequence. To the contrary, the recent sharp decline in equity markets around the world reflects the host of global challenges that face economies and governments. And the equity market will likely continue to be volatile for a number of reasons.

For one thing, the banks remain under stress. The good news is that the entire banking system is not as leveraged as it was in 2007/2008. However, the largest banks still have far too many distressed loans on their balance sheets. That puts them in the unenviable position of being a reluctant lender, preferring to hoard cash.

Perhaps most important, consumers, the driving force for growth in our economy, are both underemployed and over-indebted. Such a condition severely crimps discretionary spending. Consumers, like the banks, are being forced to reduce their own debt and downsize their balance sheets. This process takes a long time and is the reason that economic growth is likely to remain sub-par for a number of years into the future. And lest we blame the young for profligate spending, it should be noted that it is the 40 and 50 and 60 somethings who have perpetrated this overindulgence. It is refreshing to see how many of the 20 and 30 somethings are choosing to live within their means, utilizing debit cards rather than the potentially bottomless pit of credit cards. And they seem to understand the need to save for their own retirement.

What they are entitled to expect is credible, prudent leadership from Washington. Our political system is choking on rhetoric – all talk and no action, or maybe better put – all shouting and irresponsible, self-centered brinksmanship. I wonder sometimes if the shrillest of the voices in our national legislature don’t reflect the views of but a small percentage of the population. Where is the representation for the nearly silent vast majority that is centrist in its politics and its values? Where is the leadership that can bring both sides together as President Reagan, working with Speaker of the House, Tip O’Neil, was able to do? I am willing to wager that, come the next election, the most secure seats in Congress will be held by those who have been willing to meet in the center over major issues.

Our challenges are daunting but not insurmountable. They will require major restructuring of long term retirement programs currently provided by the Government. Social Security must and will be means tested – the sooner the better. We will also need to overhaul our tax system. A good start is the elimination of all loopholes, those secretly agreed upon ‘deals’ that get slipped into legislation in the dead of night. (I sometimes wonder if the only way to get rid of tax loopholes is to outlaw lobbyists. The only bad news from that would be that the unemployment rate would likely sky-rocket – at least in Washington, D.C.)

The stock market reflects the outlook for corporations to generate profits and pay dividends. Profit growth in the U.S. has been excellent since the recession bottomed out in 2008. Today, nearly 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 yield more than the current 10-year Treasury rate. The list includes such household names as PepsiCo, Merck, Kimberly Clark, Johnson & Johnson, Proctor & Gamble, Staples, Sysco, McDonalds – all companies that are sound, growing and most likely will be raising their dividends for years to come. Of course corporate earnings are not immune from economic activity, but today’s valuation of the S&P500 seems attractive, particularly when compared to the returns available on fixed income securities.

Three years ago, our economy as well as those of much of the rest of the world came close to hurtling over a precipice. The invaluable and too much maligned support from the Government did in fact save the day. We went through a serious recession and are still clawing our way back to prosperity. The challenges facing us today are long term structural issues. They must be confronted and resolved before they mushroom out of control. But they do not compare in urgency or magnitude to the events in the summer of 2008.

The Downgrade is Not the Problem – Congress Is

Monday, August 8th, 2011

The markets around the world are rattled silly this morning by the first ever downgrade of the U.S. Government’s debt by Standard & Poors. That is understandable but not, in my mind, rational.

There is no way the U.S. Government is going to default on its debt obligations. Its debts are no less safe this morning than they were on Friday or one year ago or ten years ago. It is true that our country’s balance sheet is less healthy than it was a decade ago, but look what we have been through – a recession the depth of which had not been experienced since the 1930’s while simultaneously engaging in two wars. Debt buildup and fiscal deficits were inevitable.

At the end of World War II, our debt as a percent of GDP was far higher than it is today. The Government spent huge amounts of money subsidizing mortgages and providing education through the GI Bill. The country emerged from that era into a sustained period of growth and prosperity which allowed the balance sheet to right itself.

Today we face more than a few challenging issues but they are not insurmountable if only our elected officials would work for the good of the people. There is a need first and foremost to get the economy revitalized. The reason that is proving so difficult to achieve is because the balance sheet of the consumer is still going through a downsizing. In addition, the banks are also continuing to downsize their own balance sheets. It is difficult to spend when you are trying to pay off debt.

Corporations are becoming the easy whipping boy for not hiring more of the unemployed. But they are not the culprit. They came through the recession in solid financial shape and they would like nothing more than to see good demand that would allow them to increase employment.

One thing is for sure – a massive tax increase will NOT be productive for the economy or as a means of reducing the debt levels of the Government. Such a strategy would be counterproductive. However, eliminating tax loopholes –the unfair tax treatments that allow large and profitable companies to pay nearly NO taxes – is an essential step in moving towards reducing the fiscal deficit. The same is true regarding individual taxes – the wealthiest individuals should not be able to take advantage of tax loopholes that allow them to pay the lowest tax rates. It is appalling that Congress cannot agree in a bipartisan way to eliminate tax loopholes – genuine loopholes, NOT the very legitimate deduction of mortgage interest and charitable contributions.

Longer term there is no doubt that the issues of Social Security and retirement health care must be addressed. At least they are now being discussed. Only a decade ago, they were referred to as “the third rail of politics”. So progress has been made. At some point in the not too distant future, Social Security will be means tested – as it should have been all along. And individuals will be required to work longer before receiving their benefit. This is simple arithmetic that goes hand in glove with the increase in life expectancy. A better solution would be to allow – no, to force – individuals to save for their own retirement. The money would be their own, not the Government’s, and they would be able to pass it on to future generations if not consumed in retirement. Admittedly, such a program would need to provide supplemental support for those who could not save sufficiently during their working life. That would be the Social Security part, but it would be necessary for the few not the entire population.
I admit that none of these issues is really simple but what is disheartening, or perhaps better said, infuriating is to watch our lawmakers on both sides of the aisle engage in brinksmanship rather than productive dialogue and action.

Congress spared no words demonizing ‘Wall Street’ for the recession of 2007 and the precipitous decline in the markets, never admitting their own culpability in the debacle. Today the turmoil in the markets can be laid right at the feet of Congress. Let’s hope they understand the seriousness of their criminally inept behavior.

The markets around the world are rattled silly this morning by the first ever downgrade of the U.S. Government’s debt by Standard & Poors. That is understandable but not, in my mind, rational.
There is no way the U.S. Government is going to default on its debt obligations. Its debts are no less safe this morning than they were on Friday or one year ago or ten years ago. It is true that our country’s balance sheet is less healthy than it was a decade ago, but look what we have been through – a recession the depth of which had not been experienced since the 1930’s while simultaneously engaging in two wars. Debt buildup and fiscal deficits were inevitable.
At the end of World War II, our debt as a percent of GDP was far higher than it is today. The Government spent huge amounts of money subsidizing mortgages and providing education through the GI Bill. The country emerged from that era into a sustained period of growth and prosperity which allowed the balance sheet to right itself.
Today we face more than a few challenging issues but they are not insurmountable if only our elected officials would work for the good of the people. There is a need first and foremost to get the economy revitalized. The reason that is proving so difficult to achieve is because the balance sheet of the consumer is still going through a downsizing. In addition, the banks are also continuing to downsize their own balance sheets. It is difficult to spend when you are trying to pay off debt.
Corporations are becoming the easy whipping boy for not hiring more of the unemployed. But they are not the culprit. They came through the recession in solid financial shape and they would like nothing more than to see good demand that would allow them to increase employment.
One thing is for sure – a massive tax increase will NOT be productive for the economy or as a means of reducing the debt levels of the Government. Such a strategy would be counterproductive. However, eliminating tax loopholes –the unfair tax treatments that allow large and profitable companies to pay nearly NO taxes – is an essential step in moving towards reducing the fiscal deficit. The same is true regarding individual taxes – the wealthiest individuals should not be able to take advantage of tax loopholes that allow them to pay the lowest tax rates. It is appalling that Congress cannot agree in a bipartisan way to eliminate tax loopholes – genuine loopholes, NOT the very legitimate deduction of mortgage interest and charitable contributions.
Longer term there is no doubt that the issues of Social Security and retirement health care must be addressed. At least they are now being discussed. Only a decade ago, they were referred to as “the third rail of politics”. So progress has been made. At some point in the not too distant future, Social Security will be means tested – as it should have been all along. And individuals will be required to work longer before receiving their benefit. This is simple arithmetic that goes hand in glove with the increase in life expectancy. A better solution would be to allow – no, to force – individuals to save for their own retirement. The money would be their own, not the Government’s, and they would be able to pass it on to future generations if not consumed in retirement. Admittedly, such a program would need to provide supplemental support for those who could not save sufficiently during their working life. That would be the Social Security part, but it would be necessary for the few not the entire population.
I admit that none of these issues is really simple but what is disheartening, or perhaps better said, infuriating is to watch our lawmakers on both sides of the aisle engage in brinksmanship rather than productive dialogue and action.
Congress spared no words demonizing ‘Wall Street’ for the recession of 2007 and the precipitous decline in the markets, never admitting their own culpability in the debacle. Today the turmoil in the markets can be laid right at the feet of Congress. Let’s hope they understand the seriousness of their criminally inept behavior.

Call to Action – Congress, Raise the Debt Limit NOW!!

Monday, July 18th, 2011

As a Republican, I respect the concept of fiscal conservatism. However, fiscal conservatism must not be embraced at the expense of fiscal pragmatism.
For Republicans, whose track record of raising the debt limit over the last three decades belies any sense of fiscal constraint, to adopt a holier –than-thou attitude on the subject is blatant posturing and offers nothing towards resolving the current economic stress. The debt ceiling must be raised and it must be raised now; there are no two ways about it. Both Republicans and Democrats need to accept the responsibility for doing so. Issues of cutting spending and tax reform are of critical importance, but they cannot at this eleventh hour be used to hold hostage the debt ceiling crisis.
The U.S. economy today is not in good shape. This is primarily because the housing sector is in a state of morbidity. Talk to almost anyone in the homebuilding industry and they will tell you that business is non-existent. That situation will not turn around until the banks start to lend to individuals who want to buy homes. With all the delinquent mortgages they currently hold, it is difficult to see light at the end of that tunnel. Admittedly, it is not all the fault of the banks. Individuals who took on too much debt are now in a long and slow process of right-sizing their own balance sheets. This means an extended period of under-spending as they pay off their debt.
Another major sector of our economy that is faring poorly in 2011 is Government. The reason the employment numbers so far this year look poor is because of lay-offs at all levels of government – Federal, State and local. The private sector has actually added jobs, even if the numbers are not awe-inspiring. Public sector employment is being downsized as Governments struggle to bring their wage costs, retirement promises and medical expenses in line with declining revenues. Over the long haul, that is good. The smaller the public sector relative to the entire economic pie, the greater the opportunity for growth, profits and prosperity. That is a truism of capitalism.
But another economic truism is that government deficits act as a stimulus to the economy. That does not mean that they are not a matter for concern. Over time, no government, company or individual can endlessly run deficits. But to force gargantuan Federal spending cuts during a period of economic hardship can have the perverse impact of worsening unemployment and prolonging economic stagnation.
Fortunately for the economy, much of the private corporate sector is vibrant. Many public corporations have strong balance sheets, good earnings growth and are globally competitive. In large measure this is because they were aggressive in cutting costs and conserving cash during the recession – a process that continues. Now is the time to eliminate corporate tax loopholes. That does not mean doing away with sensible, legitimate business costs (such as the R&D tax credit and the very valid use of corporate jets). Rather it means leveling the playing field for all corporations by undoing the myriad special deals that corporate lobbying by the most powerful companies has achieved.
Another tax loophole that must be addressed relates to the taxation of dividends. The logic behind reducing the high tax on dividends was economically sound and President Clinton signed the bill into law. But the unintended consequences of that event have been hugely detrimental to the coffers of the Federal Government, as billionaires have been able to shelter what is de facto earned income through corporate structures that treat their gargantuan incomes as dividends. No less a beneficiary than Warren Buffett has admitted as much, and he says that the system needs to be fixed. That should be easy to do. It would be far more powerful than eliminating the deductions for (1) mortgage interest which middle class Americans use to their benefit and (2) charitable deductions which help to serve the needs of so many of disadvantaged.
With the issue of a potential default just two weeks away, Congress is now trapped. Republicans and Democrats must not put the national interest at risk. The patriotic stance is to do what is right for the country and raise the debt ceiling. Once that is done, Congress must then go to work on restoring a sense of fairness in our tax code by eliminating loopholes and making the wealthy pay their fair share.
Patricia W Chadwick
President
Ravengate Partners LLC
July 18, 2011